StratWatch model: GDELT article density (military · cyber · nuclear · escalation domains) · Same underlying signal — open-source methodology
STRATEGIC READINESS ESTIMATE
STRATWATCH OSINT ANALYTICAL MODULE · INSPIRED BY THE DEFCON SCALE · NOT AN OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT STATUS
SRE LEVEL 5
StratWatch analytical estimate only. The SRE uses a 1–5 scale inspired by the familiar DEFCON readiness framework, but is derived entirely from open-source OSINT indicators: conflict severity, military signals, nuclear signalling, and cross-theatre activity. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sourced from any government, military, or official defence body. This is not an official DEFCON status.
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ANALYTICAL SCALE — 5 (ROUTINE) TO 1 (MAXIMUM ESCALATION)
1
MAXIMUM ESCALATION
What it means: All primary OSINT escalation indicators are at or near maximum simultaneously — sustained critical-severity events from multiple nuclear-armed state actors, concurrent nuclear signalling, and multi-theatre military activity above any recent baseline.
Operational context: Extremely rare. Would require a convergence of crises with no precedent in the post-Cold War OSINT record. Platform defaults away from this level unless all factor thresholds are simultaneously met.
2
SEVERE ESCALATION
What it means: Multiple concurrent active crises involving state actors, accompanied by nuclear-adjacent signalling (e.g. doctrine statements, delivery system posturing) and a high volume of military-type intelligence signals across theatres.
Operational context: Consistent with a period of acute international crisis — e.g. simultaneous high-intensity conflict, allied force reinforcement, and elevated nuclear rhetoric. Rare under normal OSINT conditions.
3
ELEVATED ESCALATION
What it means: Sustained escalation across at least four distinct conflict zones, or Iran/Russia critical event counts above the high threshold. Above-baseline military and intelligence signal volume. Conflict tempo is meaningfully higher than recent norms.
Operational context: Consistent with periods of simultaneous active regional wars and elevated inter-state tensions — e.g. overlapping Ukraine, Middle East, and Indo-Pacific escalation. Possible but not routine.
4
ABOVE-BASELINE ACTIVITY
What it means: Multiple military-type intelligence signals detected in the past 24 hours, or three or more distinct conflict zones showing active severity-3+ events. Cross-domain activity above the routine baseline, but without sustained critical-event clusters.
Operational context: The most common non-routine level. Consistent with ongoing active conflicts, periodic force posture changes, and elevated military reporting. Appropriate for the current global environment in most periods.
5
ROUTINE
What it means: Observed OSINT activity is within background norms. Fewer than three military signals in 24 hours, fewer than three active high-severity conflict zones, no critical-count threshold met. Low or no data — the default state when inputs are sparse.
Operational context: The platform default and most common starting level. Does not imply the world is conflict-free — it means OSINT signal volume is within the expected background range for the current data window.
STRATWATCH is a free, open-source OSINT research platform.
All data is sourced from publicly available APIs (GDELT, ACLED, USGS, NASA, LiveUAMap, etc.)
and is provided for informational and research purposes only.
Information may be incomplete, outdated, or inaccurate. Strategic Readiness Estimates are unofficial OSINT assessments, not official government DEFCON status.
Do not rely on this platform for emergency decisions or official intelligence. Use at your own risk.